The Upcoming Gubernatorial Race and the Implications of Hochul’s Low Approval Ratings
With just over a year until New York’s next gubernatorial election, Gov. Kathy Hochul faces an uphill battle as recent polling suggests voters are increasingly dissatisfied with her leadership. While her approval ratings remain underwater, the question now is whether any of her current challengers—most of whom lack statewide recognition—can capitalize on voter discontent or if a stronger contender will emerge.
A Siena College poll released last week found that 50% of New York voters view Hochul unfavorably, compared to just 40% who hold a positive opinion of her. Her job approval rating stands at 46%, with 48% disapproving of her performance. More concerning for the governor’s re-election bid, only 34% of voters say they would like to see her serve another term, while 56% prefer “someone else.”
Hochul, the state’s first female governor, took office in 2021 following Andrew Cuomo’s resignation and secured a full term in 2022. But despite maintaining a lead in early Democratic primary matchups, political observers say her vulnerabilities could encourage a more prominent challenger to enter the race.
At present, Hochul’s most notable potential Democratic challengers are Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Rep. Ritchie Torres, neither of whom has widespread name recognition. Delgado, a former congressman from the Hudson Valley, has reportedly had a strained relationship with Hochul and recently formed a campaign committee, a sign he may be gearing up for a run. Torres, a Bronx Democrat, has also expressed interest in a primary challenge but remains unknown to many voters outside New York City.
In a hypothetical Democratic primary, Hochul leads with 46% support among Democrats, while Delgado and Torres trail far behind at 11% and 10%, respectively. However, nearly a third of Democratic voters remain undecided, leaving the door open for another high-profile candidate to enter the race.
Republicans Eye the Governor’s Mansion
On the Republican side, a competitive primary is also taking shape. Rep. Mike Lawler has emerged as an early frontrunner, with 25% support among GOP voters, though a staggering 60% remain undecided. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is also considering a bid but has yet to gain significant traction.
While New York remains a solidly blue state, Republicans have found success in recent elections, particularly in suburban and upstate regions. Lee Zeldin, the GOP’s 2022 nominee, came within six points of defeating Hochul—far closer than many expected in a heavily Democratic state. That performance has given Republicans hope that, with the right candidate, they could flip the governor’s office in 2026.
A Cuomo Comeback?
One name that continues to loom over New York politics is former Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Once a dominant force in state government, Cuomo was forced to resign in 2021 amid multiple allegations of sexual harassment. However, he has been quietly rebuilding his political image and recently announced his candidacy for New York City mayor. His entry into the mayoral race has added a new dynamic to the political landscape, with some speculating that a successful bid could position him for a future gubernatorial run.
For now, Hochul remains the favorite to win her party’s nomination, but her path to re-election is far from secure. If voter dissatisfaction persists and a more formidable challenger emerges, the race for New York governor could become one of the most closely watched contests of 2026.
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